The impact of aid sanctions on maternal and child mortality, 1990–2019: a panel analysis
Background: Aid sanctions are a type of financial punishment imposed on a country by other countries or international organisations in response to a political coup, armed conflict, or human rights abuses. Humanitarian catastrophes in Burkina Faso, Sudan, and Myanmar have brought aid sanctions to the centre of the foreign affairs strategy debate because of their inadvertent negative effects on human health. Our analysis investigates the effects of aid sanctions from 1990 to 2019 on maternal and child mortality. These questions are particularly relevant in the context of the abrupt shift in US foreign aid policy in 2025, leading to aid prohibitions that might resemble aid sanctions in their effects.
Key Findings
Findings: During our study period, 67 low-income or middle-income countries (LMICs) and sovereign territories (hereafter referred to as countries) were targeted by 88 unique aid sanction episodes. Relative to our control group of 66 never-sanctioned countries, aid sanctions reduced ODA by an estimated US$213·07 million per year (95% CI 502·28 to -76·12) for the average target country and reduced DAH by $16·42 million (32·57 to 0·27)--a 17% reduction in DAH. Aid sanctions resulted in an additional 129·3 infant deaths per 100 000 livebirths (11·7 to 246·9), an additional 47·1 under-5 deaths per 100 000 livebirths (-2·8 to 97·0), and an additional 10·9 (2·2-19·6) maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths, per year. Relative to mean in-sample mortality rates, aid sanctions thus increased infant, under-5, and maternal mortality rates by 3·1%, 3·6%, and 6·4%, respectively, on an annual basis.How to Cite
Ruth Margaret Gibson (2025). The impact of aid sanctions on maternal and child mortality, 1990–2019: a panel analysis. Lancet Glob Health . https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00058-0